The International Crisis Group published its second report "Nagorno Karabakh: A Plan for Peace" on October 11. "The two sides appear close to agreeing on key principles of a peace deal", says Sabine Freizer, Director of Crisis Group's Caucasus Project. "It is essential that the governments now begin preparing their people for a compromise".

 "Nagorno Karabakh's status should ultimately be determined by an internationally sanctioned referendum with the exclusive participation of Karabakh Armenians and Azeris", reads the report. The ICG emphasizes that the referendum can be held only after the Azeris return to their homes in Karabakh as well as "an international conference will determine that NK meets the criteria of statehood". But before the referendum the ICG offers the following major steps to take: withdrawal of Armenia-backed Nagorno Karabakh forces from the occupied districts of Azerbaijan surrounding the entity (from Aghdam, Fizuli, Jebrail, Zangelan in the first stage and Kelbajar and Lachin in the second. The Lachin corridor is supposed to remain a link between Armenian and Karabakh); renunciation by Azerbaijan of the use of force to reintegrate the entity and deployment of international peacekeepers (before withdrawal of Karabakh forces from Kelbajar and Lachin); return of displaced persons and re-opening of trade and communication links.

The ICG thinks that a referendum is realistic in 10 or 20 years. As a result, Karabakh can get independence, wide autonomy within Azerbaijan, reunification with Armenia or status of confederation with Azerbaijan. The ICG suggests leaving Nagorno Karabakh in the structure of Azerbaijan before the referendum "though in practical terms it would be self-governing and enjoy an internationally acknowledged interim status".