The euro's painful plunge to uncharted lows Tuesday bloodied the already bruised forecasts of euro bulls who have steadfastly predicted a brighter 2000 for the single currency.
Published:
3 May 2000 y., Wednesday
"Obviously things haven't played out for the euro the way many people, ourselves included, had anticipated. We were obviously looking for a better performance," said Bob Lynch, currency strategist for Banque Paribas in New York.
The euro crumbled around 2 percent to record floors against the dollar, yen, and British pound, pounding market players who have been hunting for strategic points to buy euros on dips. After slumping around 15 percent in its first year of life in 1999, the euro staged a sharp rally on the first trading day of 2000 amid rosy forecasts for European economic growth and a belief the red-hot U.S. economy would cool. But by the end of January, the euro slumped convincingly below the psychologically important $1 level. In February, when the currency spiked to an all-time low near 94 cents, many market players cautiously ventured the euro may have hit a bottom.
During the past month, euro bulls voiced confidence the dollar would at last begin to lose its shine as U.S. equities, especially high-flying technology shares, began a severe sell-off and stock volatility gripped Wall Street. But on Tuesday, the euro's downward spiral deepened. Analysts say the euro has been unable to keep pace with the dollar as U.S. economic growth blisters ahead of earlier expectations and eclipsed improved European prospects. U.S. first quarter gross domestic product data due this week is expected to register a scorching 5.9 percent on an annualized basis, outstripping a 3.1 percent forecast made just three months ago. The European Commission, meanwhile, forecasts Europe will grow by 3.4 percent this year.
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