Euro-zone1 annual inflation2 is expected to be 2.3% in February 2003 according to a flash estimate issued today by Eurostat

Euro-zone1 annual inflation2 is expected to be 2.3% in February 2003 according to a flash estimate issued today by Eurostat - the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg. It was 2.2% in January. The euro-zone inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP). To compute the MUICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available as well as early information about energy prices. The estimation procedure for the MUICP flash estimate issued combines historical information with partial information on price developments in the most recent months to give a total index for the euro-zone. No detailed breakdown is available. Simulations have shown the procedure to be reliable (13 times correctly anticipating the full estimate, 9 times differing by 0.1 and 2 times differing by 0.2 - last time in April 2002 - over the last two years). Following the regular update to the HICP sample and weighting in Germany3, German HICP series and MUICP aggregates have been updated from January 2000 onwards. These results being still provisional, this month's flash estimate carries a greater uncertainty than past performance would indicate.