Voter apathy - turnout in the current member states is likely to sink further

The centre-right is set to dominate again in the European Parliament after elections in June, a new report predicts. Based on the premise that parties in government will do badly and that large parties in opposition will do well, the study for public affairs company Burson-Marsteller predicts that while the centre-right may make a loss in several smaller member states, it will more than make up for it in Germany, Poland and the UK. The centre-right EPP-ED, which is currently the biggest group in the European Parliament, is expected to get 285 (39%) seats in the 732-seat assembly. The socialists are predicted to come in with 217 (30%) seats and the liberals with 73 (10%) - which is exactly the order of the three main groups in the parliament today. However, the study, carried out by Professor Simon Hix of the London School of Economics and Professor Michael Marsh of Trinity College, also predicts some important changes.The eurosceptic EDD group is "unlikely to secure enough MEPs to form a group" and there "may be as many as 50 non-attached MEPs". Also, if the votes fall the way the report predicts, the liberals will play a pivotal role in EU legislation, meaning they could side with the socialists on environmental issues and with the conservatives on economic issues. If the liberals form an alliance with the centre-right, they would have over 50 percent of the seats in the parliament so they could apply some interesting political leverage when the Parliament chooses top positions in the EU such as the presidents of the European Commission and the Parliament.