CURRENCY UNION WITH RUSSIA HINGES ON POLITICAL BARGAIN

Economist Valery Dashkevich, an independent consultant for the Belarusian National Bank, told RFE/RL's Belarusian Service on 12 August that Russian President Vladimir Putin's call on 11 August for a final decision on a common currency stems from pressure exerted on the Kremlin by Russian oligarchs and businessmen. According to Dashkevich, Russian businessmen are dissatisfied with the lack of progress in Russian-Belarusian integration, and primarily with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's reluctance to sell major Belarusian state-run enterprises to Russians. Dashkevich believes that Lukashenka will bend to Putin's model of the single currency only after Putin guarantees his support for Lukashenka remaining in power for a third term and makes concessions regarding the future constitution of the Russia-Belarus Union. Dashkevich said Lukashenka might delay his decision on the introduction of the Russian ruble in Belarus until after Russian parliamentary and presidential elections slated for December 2003 and March 2004, respectively.